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Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president, assumed office in 2022 with a pledge to shift his country away from the United States-led “war on drugs” – a campaign widely blamed for the double victimisation of rural Colombians living under the shadow of violence.

Since then, cocaine production in Colombia – the world’s largest exporter – has soared to record levels, driven by sustained demand in Europe and the US.

Previous attempts at crop substitution have failed, often undermined by the disruptive actions of armed groups and the eventual drying up of government support.

Gloria Miranda, who heads Colombia’s illegal crop substitution programme, cautioned that it would be naive to believe the new initiative could end drug trafficking “as long as there is a market of 20 million consumers and it (cocaine) remains illegal”.

President Petro, in his pursuit of “total peace”, has prioritised negotiation with armed groups over military confrontation, rolling back forced coca eradication.

Colombian soldiers and policemen stand guard in a street in Argelia [Joaquin Sarmiento/AFP]
However, most talks have faltered, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January has intensified pressure on Bogota. The Trump administration is reassessing Colombia’s status as a partner in the anti-drug campaign, threatening to curtail millions of dollars in military aid.

Given the high stakes, observers are concerned the crop replacement scheme may be exploited.

Some farmers may “try to deceive” by accepting state funds while continuing to cultivate coca, warned Argelia’s government secretary, Pablo Daza.

Without rigorous oversight, “the chances are quite high that we are wasting money,” said Emilio Archila, who oversaw a similar, ultimately unsuccessful, programme under former President Ivan Duque.

Miranda insists that “meticulous” satellite monitoring will ensure compliance, promising that anyone found in breach will be expelled from the programme.

While coca is best known as the raw material for cocaine, its leaves are chewed as a stimulant in Andean cultures and brewed as a tea believed to alleviate altitude sickness.

Colombia has repeatedly called for coca leaf to be removed from the United Nations list of harmful narcotics in order to license its use in alternative products, such as fertilisers or beverages – appeals which, for now, remain unanswered.