Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist who authored the latest series of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, has told Al Jazeera that the cyclone warnings reached communities in the affected countries long before Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah hit the coasts.
There were heavy rain alerts after the satellites successfully tracked the storms, Koll said, and yet more than 1,000 people died across Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Koll noted that both cyclones that hit Indonesia and Sri Lanka were not the strongest storms of recent decades, with relatively lower wind speeds, from 60-80km/h (37-50mph). However, they carried extraordinary amounts of water and moisture.
One common thread tying the extreme weather events in Asia is that they hit places where steep terrain, encroached channels, limited warning-to-evacuation capacity, and fragile infrastructure compounded the danger, said Koll.
“While the cyclone warnings were accurate, the authorities failed to translate a meteorological alert into safety on the ground,” added Koll, noting that the effect was harshest on the poorer sections of society that had their homes and farms wiped out.
A mere forecast cannot make up for decades of unplanned growth, weak land-use regulation and the absence of safe alternatives, he said, describing this so-called “last mile” as the weakest link in South Asia’s disaster preparedness.