The race for a deal between the United States and Iran as a fragile two-week ceasefire nears its end. After marathon talks over the weekend failed to secure an agreement, both sides are preparing for another round of in‑person negotiations, knowing they cannot win everything they wanted from the war. On the table are Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, US sanctions, arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran’s regional proxies, and Israel’s invasion in Lebanon. But the Israel angle complicates matters: Iran wants Israel constrained by any settlement, while Israel seeks freedom of action to continue its campaign, leaving Washington caught between an ally and an adversary. With Trump threatening to resume strikes and tighten the naval blockade, and Iran warning it could disrupt exports and imports across the Gulf, Sea of Oman and Red Sea, we explore what is driving both sides to the table and whether a deal can be reached before the ceasefire collapses.