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“We didn’t see it coming,” Cheche admitted.

At the lake’s edge, bare acacia trunks that were once lush now stand submerged in waters advancing about 1 metre (3.3 feet) daily.

This phenomenon affects other Rift Valley lakes and has displaced hundreds of thousands.

Numerous studies primarily attribute this to increased rainfall driven by climate change.

However, Kenyan geologist John Lagat, regional manager at the state-owned Geothermal Development Corporation, points to tectonics as the main cause, noting the lakes’ position along a major geological fault.

When English settlers arrived in the late 19th century, the lake was even larger before shifting tectonic plates reduced it to just 1km (0.6 miles) in diameter by 1921.

Subsequent tectonic movements increasingly sealed underground outflows, trapping water, Lagat explained, though he acknowledged that increased rainfall and land degradation from population growth also play a “substantial” role in flooding.

“We are very worried,” said Alero from her flooded home, dreading the upcoming rainy season.

“We can’t tell what will happen.”